Training load progression calculator
Your data
The unit is yours. Nothing here depends on whether you count in kilos or in pounds, so the page does not ask.
The ceiling is a field rather than a constant because how much anyone still has left to climb depends on training age, on time and on the body doing the lifting. This page does the arithmetic of the plan you describe; it does not prescribe one.
Results
Weeks before this plan reaches the ceiling you named
—
| Sessions that takes | — |
| Where the same plan would land in a year, if nothing stopped it | — |
| How big each jump is right now, in percent of the bar | — |
| How big the same jump would be at the ceiling, in percent | — |
| What the jump would have to be at the ceiling to feel the same | — |
| What this amounts to per week right now, in percent | — |
Where the plan takes you, and what each jump is worth by then
| Weeks from now | Weight on the bar | What one jump is worth, in percent | Against your ceiling |
|---|
The third column is the one that explains why beginners climb quickly and then stop. The amount you add never changes, but the bar it is added to keeps growing, so the same jump asks for a smaller and smaller share of what you are already doing. Two and a half on a bar of forty is a sixteenth of it; on a bar of two hundred it is an eightieth. The plan does not fail on a particular day, it fades.
Swapping the fixed amount for a fixed percentage does not rescue this, it makes it steeper. Adding one per cent a week doubles the bar in seventy weeks, and two per cent a week doubles it in thirty five. A percentage that sounds gentle is compound growth, and compound growth applied to a barbell arrives at numbers nobody lifts even faster than the fixed amount does.
What all of this argues for is not a better formula but a plan that expects to be replaced. A scheme that adds every session is meant for the stretch where it works, and the honest question is not whether it will stop but when, which is the number at the top of this page.
Why does linear progression stop working?
Because the amount you add stays the same while the bar it is added to keeps growing, so each jump asks for a smaller share of what you are already lifting. Two and a half added to forty is a sixteenth of the bar; the same two and a half added to two hundred is an eightieth.
To keep the same relative stimulus at two hundred that you had at sixty you would have to add more than eight, not two and a half. Nothing goes wrong on a particular day. The plan fades, because it is asking less of you every week while looking like it asks the same.
| Weight on the bar | What adding 2.5 is worth |
|---|---|
| 40 | 6.25% |
| 60 | 4.17% |
| 100 | 2.50% |
| 150 | 1.67% |
| 200 | 1.25% |
How long does a linear progression last?
Exactly as long as the gap between where you are and where you can get, divided by what you add each session. That is a number, and it is usually shorter than people expect: from sixty to a ceiling of a hundred and forty, adding two and a half three times a week, is eleven weeks.
The reason it surprises anyone is that the arithmetic does not stop when the body does. Left alone for a year, adding two and a half three times a week puts four hundred and fifty on the bar.
| Sessions per week | Added in a year | Bar after a year, starting from 60 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 260 | 320 |
| 3 | 390 | 450 |
| 4 | 520 | 580 |
Is adding a percentage each week better than adding a fixed amount?
It is steeper, not gentler. A fixed percentage is compound growth, so it accelerates as the bar rises, which is the opposite of what a lifter close to their limit needs.
Adding one per cent a week doubles the bar in seventy weeks. Two per cent a week doubles it in thirty five. Half a per cent, which sounds like almost nothing, still doubles it inside three years.
| Added per week | Weeks to double the bar |
|---|---|
| 0.5% | 139 |
| 1% | 70 |
| 2% | 35 |
What should I do when the plan runs out?
That is a coaching question rather than an arithmetic one, and it depends on the lift, the training age and how the last few weeks actually felt. What this page can tell you is the date, so the decision is made in advance rather than in the week everything stalls.
The general shape of the answer is that schemes which add every session are for the stretch where they work, and something slower replaces them afterwards. Expecting to be replaced is a feature of a good plan, not an admission that it was wrong.
Why does the page ask for a ceiling instead of working it out?
Because there is no honest formula for it. How much anyone still has to climb depends on training history, on time under the bar, on sleep and on the body doing the lifting, and a constant written into a page would be a guess wearing the clothes of a calculation.
The arithmetic that follows from the ceiling is exact whatever you put in it, which is why the field is yours. Try a number you believe and a number you doubt, and see how much the answer moves.
Does the unit matter, kilos or pounds?
No. Every figure on this page is either a share of the bar or a count of sessions, and neither changes when the unit does.
The one thing to keep consistent is the increment: if the bar is in kilos, the amount you add has to be in kilos as well.
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